If you had told most fans before this season that the Cleveland Browns would be 2-6 coming out of their Week 9 bye, most would have agreed that this was one of the likeliest outcomes. The playoffs were always a long shot for the 2025 Browns, who needed a strong rebuilding year to figure out how to proceed ahead of the 2026 draft.
Thanks to their draft day trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Browns now hold two first-round selections in next year’s draft. Having multiple picks is always valuable, but securing the number one overall pick would be even more impactful.
According to ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi, the outcome of Sunday’s game against the Jets could heavily influence those odds. If the Browns win, their chances of landing the top pick sit at seven percent. A loss, however, would raise that probability to 27 percent.
Chance for No. 1 Pick, per ESPN Analytics (independent of Saints and Titans results)
Browns
If Win: 7% (4th highest)
If Lose: 27% (2nd highest)<<Jets
If Win: 8% (4th highest)
If Lose: 28% (2nd highest)<<>>Both 2nd to Saints
— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) November 8, 2025
Whoever loses this game will have a strong path to the first overall pick, as the other two teams firmly in the mix (Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints) still have to play each other in a few weeks. The Jets seem like a long shot to win another game, but you never know in the NFL.
Cleveland needs to continue evaluating rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel and possibly Shedeur Sanders to determine whether a quarterback should be a top priority in the 2026 draft. On the other side, Justin Fields has all the incentive in the world to play well to prove he still deserves to be a starter in this league. It won’t be many fans’ favorite matchup on Sunday, but the Browns/Jets game will likely change the trajectory of the league in the near future.
NEXT: Report: Browns Nearly Pulled Off Trade For Young WR
