It is the time of year for anyone and everyone to make NFL predictions and not be proven wrong, yet.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) recently ranked ten NFL teams by each team’s percentage chance of winning the 2022 Super Bowl.
The good news is that the Cleveland Browns made the list; the bad news is they are near the bottom of it.
Browns And Two Other Teams Have 5% Chance
With a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl, the Browns are tied with two other teams on the list.
They are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams.
That is not bad company to be in.
One Team With A Less Than 5% Chance
That team is the Tennessee Titans who according to this ESPN analysis have a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Top Two Teams
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has been released for the upcoming NFL season.
A few key points:
– The Chiefs are Super Bowl favorites (19%).
– The most likely Super Bowl is a rematch (8%).
– The 49ers (33%) and Cowboys (45%) are both division favorites. pic.twitter.com/lgZtrm5rvG
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 9, 2021
The analysis really went out on a limb by projecting that the defending AFC and NFC Champions have the highest odds of winning next year’s Super Bowl.
The AFC Champion (and Super Bowl runner up) Kansas City Chiefs have a higher probability of winning, a 19% chance.
Whereas, the defending Super Bowl Champions who defeated the Chiefs in February, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, have a 15% chance.
If the Super Bowl was played today between these two teams in a neutral location, the Chiefs would be a whopping 1.3 point favorite.
The Rest Of The List – Four Other Teams
In the middle of the list are the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, and San Francisco 49ers.
The Bills are assessed at a 9% probability rate; the other three teams are even at 6%.
How Are The Numbers Determined
According to ESPN, FPI is a statistical model that works as follows:
“[It] determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections.”
What It Means
It is an interesting list of playoff teams from 2020 with one outlier, the San Francisco 49ers.
Oddsmakers show the AFC Champion will most likely come from the teams on ESPN’s list also.
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) August 9, 2021
Nobody knows how the season will go for any of these teams or the teams that did not make this top ten list.
That’s why they play the game.