The Cleveland Browns enter 2026 with more uncertainty surrounding their record than almost any team in the league, and it has nothing to do with the schedule or the coaching change. Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot laid out why predicting this season is so difficult, and her explanation comes down to a single variable that could swing this team’s outlook by four full wins in either direction.
Cabot broke down the range of outcomes depending on how the quarterback position plays out.
“If their QBs land in the middle of the pack in terms of NFL rankings, they can win eight or nine games and flirt with a wild card spot. If they get poor QB play for the second straight season, they’ll likely be more in the six or seven victories range. And if Watson somehow morphs back into the Houston version of himself, they could even reach 10, which seems like a longshot. So that’s my range: 6 to 10 victories depending on QB performance,” Cabot wrote.
Deshaun Watson’s downfield accuracy has declined significantly over the past several seasons, and his health history has repeatedly cut short whatever progress he showed in a given year. If that version of Watson shows up again in 2026, Cabot’s numbers suggest this offense simply cannot overcome it regardless of what improvements happen elsewhere on the roster.
The other end of her range requires something closer to a best-case scenario. Watson returning to his Pro Bowl level with the Texans would represent one of the more dramatic turnarounds in recent memory.
Shedeur Sanders looms over this entire equation as the alternative if Watson cannot deliver. Todd Monken has options most rebuilding coaches would envy, and how quickly he is willing to turn to Sanders could ultimately determine which end of Cabot’s range this season lands in. Either way, her math makes one thing clear. Everything about this Browns season starts and ends at quarterback.
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