Pro Football Focus’ lead NFL analyst Sam Monson believes Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield is a great dark horse MVP candidate heading into the 2021 season.
Based on Draft Kings odds, Monson said he believes Mayfield is the best value bet at +3,330.
“That’s way worse than [Los Angeles Chargers quarterback] Justin Herbert,” Monson said. “Baker Mayfield is leading a juggernaut right now in the Cleveland Browns.”
Here is a look at the players with the best odds to win MVP, according to Draft Kings:
- Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes: +450
- Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers: +900
- Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen: +1,100
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady: +1,400
- Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson: +1,600
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford: +1,600
- Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson: +1,600
- Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott: +1,700
- Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert: +2,000
- Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray: +2,000
- Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield: +3,300
Note: Odds are as of Saturday, June 5.
"Baker Mayfield is a great value bet as a dark horse MVP."
— PFF (@PFF) June 4, 2021
Draft Kings also lists Browns running back Nick Chubb at +10,000 to win MVP.
However, the 2012 season marked the last time a running back won the MVP award when former Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson ran for 2,097 yards.
If last season is any indication, the Browns’ stellar offensive line could help Mayfield or Chubb’s dark-horse MVP candidacies.
PFF graded the Browns offensive line as the NFL’s best in 2020.
Plus, Mayfield has plenty of weapons with Odell Beckham Jr. returning from a season-ending ACL injury, Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper, Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
“If you shop around, you can find odds where [Mayfield is] the same as Jalen Hurts or Christian McCaffrey to win MVP,” Monson said. “That is ridiculous.”
Draft Kings gives each Hurts and McCaffrey +5,000 odds to win the 2021 MVP award.
Ultimately, it depends on which book a bettor is using.
FanDuel lists Mayfield at +2,900 while BetMGM lists him at +4,000.
“Baker Mayfield last season was on fire by the end of the year,” Monson said. “The Browns got better.
“They fixed their secondary that bringing back Odell Beckham actually helped that offense. Baker Mayfield is a great value bet as a dark horse MVP.”
During the 2020 season, Mayfield led the Browns to the playoffs for the first time since Jan. 5, 2003.
The Browns’ 48-37 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round marked their first playoff victory since Jan. 1, 1995.
Mayfield, 26, has stayed relatively healthy so far in his professional career.
As Mayfield enters his fourth NFL season, he has made 47 consecutive starts for the Browns at quarterback, which includes two playoff games.
Quarterback Brian Sipe was the last Browns player to win the AP NFL MVP Award when he won it for his performance during the 1980 season.
Hall of Fame running back Jim Brown won the MVP award three times in 1957, 1958 and 1965.