Only one team comes into the 2022 NFL season with a roster as young as the Cleveland Browns‘.
And changing the quarterback midseason is not going to help any learning curves among the troops.
But this team won 8 games last season with a one-armed quarterback and half an offensive line.
They’re expected to have a stronger defense, improved special teams, and the top rushing attack in the NFL.
OFFICIAL: The schedule is finally here❗️
📰 » https://t.co/ahQJWXpxMz pic.twitter.com/By37coDLfB
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) May 13, 2022
It’s easy to understand why some fans think they’ll weather Watson’s absence and roll into the playoffs with 11-12 wins.
But some of the more discerning NFL analysis groups peg Cleveland for as few as 6-7 wins.
Las Vegas oddsmakers dropped Cleveland’s betting target to 8.5 wins after Deshaun Watson’s suspension was announced.
Here’s how we project the Browns’ win total for 2022:
Win The Ones They’re Supposed To Win
Under Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland has won most of the games they were supposed to win.
That includes a 7-2 record in games they played as the favorite last year.
But the Browns are only favored in 8 contests at this point, including some 1-point toss-ups.
They are underdogs in Week 1 to a team widely expected to fire their coach during the season.
Jacoby giving the Peoples what they want 🎯@JBrissett12 | @dpeoplesjones | #Browns pic.twitter.com/wkXq3qfuTX
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) August 31, 2022
Over Jacoby Brissett’s 11 projected games under center, Cleveland is favored only 4 times, all in the first 6 weeks.
If Brissett pulls all 4 of those games out, Deshaun Watson needs to win 5 of his 6 starts to beat the Vegas projection.
As luck would have it, the Browns are the favorite 5 times over the last 6 weeks.
But going 9-0 against any group of NFL opponents is a difficult feat.
Splitting the Division Games is Key
Baltimore and Cincinnati are widely considered playoff contenders this season.
But everyone knows that AFC North division games can go either way.
Even a rebuilding Pittsburgh is no easy mark as head coach Mike Tomlin looks to extend his streak of winning seasons.
Sweeping any of the 3 division rivals would go a long way in securing a winning record, if not a playoff berth.
“IT’S DENZEL WARD!"
🗣 Jim Donovan calls @denzelward's pick six vs. the Bengals pic.twitter.com/7IerOfrc7d
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 10, 2019
Vegas bookmakers favor the Browns against the Steelers twice and make them underdogs to the Bengals home and away.
They gave Cleveland the edge with just a 1-point nod versus the Ravens at home and called for a big loss in Baltimore.
Anything can happen, for better or worse, as the Ravens and Browns learned just last season.
But continuing their dominance against the Bengals would give Cleveland 2 unexpected wins to work with.
But… They’ll Need To Surprise Somebody Else
That leaves 8 more games the oddsmakers feel the Browns should lose.
After a relatively easy first 6 games (except for the Chargers at home), Brissett faces a tough stretch.
His 2 remaining home games come in a Monday Night Football contest with Cincinnati and a Sunday matchup with Tampa Bay.
And the team faces Baltimore, Buffalo, and Miami on the road before Watson’s return.
ayo Myles, take it easy on coach 😅 pic.twitter.com/a8sqeNfNaC
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) August 31, 2022
Beating Cincinnati in front of a national TV audience might give the team enough confidence to pull off another upset or two.
Miami is probably the best bet at this point to fall victim to Brissett and the rest.
One thing that could be the Browns’ downfall is if the offense looks ahead to Watson’s return.
They need to remain fully focused against this tough stretch of opponents if they are to steal an extra victory.
So How Many Wins Do The Browns Rack Up?
Jacoby Brissett is not taking the field alone for those first 11 games.
Cleveland’s running game, defense, and kicking game are ready to lend more of a hand than they have in recent years.
Veterans like Garrett and Chubb and youngsters like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah can make a difference.
This team won 8 games amid injuries and some unusual distractions last year.
Hey @Browns fans, you excited for your kicker yet? Cade York from 70!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/u7jKjOb7ET
— Chris Rose (@ChrisRose) August 27, 2022
Cleveland should come out of the gate no worse than 4-2, and I think they can steal 2 wins during that tough 5-game midseason stretch.
Deshaun Watson is not a lock to win the final 6 games, or even more than 4 of them.
Emotions, aided by fan interactions, will affect more than just the quarterback when he takes the field.
But 4-2 would be enough to give Cleveland a 10-7 record, right in the middle of our 9-11 win prediction.
NEXT: Browns Nation News And Notes (9/8/22)