One of the perceived benefits of the Myles Garrett trade for the Cleveland Browns is that it will give them a better chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Not only will the team inevitably be worse, at least in the short term, after trading away one of the best players in the league, but the first-round pick they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams could prove valuable if the Browns need to trade up.
Unfortunately, it isn’t going to be that easy. Several other quarterback-needy teams are arguably much worse than the Browns and can get that No. 1 pick all on their own.
With edge rusher Jared Verse arriving in the trade as a natural replacement for Garrett, the drop-off may not be as bad as some people might think. In addition, the Browns have an impressive collection of young talent that should help them improve over last season, when their 5-12 record landed them the No. 6 overall pick in the 2026 draft.
The Browns have a relatively easy schedule, at least based on last season’s winning percentage and this year’s projections. Add to that positive practice reports regarding quarterback Deshaun Watson, and Cleveland may actually be much closer to playoff contention than it is to last place.
With that in mind, analyst Tim Bielik is downplaying the Browns’ chances of securing the top draft pick, saying it’s basically out of their hands.
“A lot of things would have to go wrong for the Browns to finish with the No. 1 pick. Numerous stars would have to miss significant time, the quarterback play would have to be as big an anchor on the team as it was in 2024, and the schedule would have to be much tougher than it is. Their quarterback fate, even after dealing their best player, is still out of their hands. It’s in the hands of the teams in worse shape than the Browns and the draft-eligible quarterbacks in college to prove they are worthy of being first-round picks,” Bielik wrote.
The Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals are all projected to have fewer wins than the Browns this season, which would put them higher in the draft order. Each of those teams needs a quarterback, so whoever lands at No. 1 overall would have their choice from a talented class that is expected to include Arch Manning, Dante Moore, CJ Carr and Julian Sayin.
If Cleveland does have another poor season, it would still be in the mix to land one of those top prospects, but the Browns may not be assured of getting the one they covet the most.
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